Can Providence get to the Sweet 16 without a jump offensively?
How Sweet 16 teams have fared on the offensive and defensive side of the ball per Ken Pomeroy's rankings -- and how challenging it is to get to the second weekend without a top 50 offense.
While few would deny that Providence’s streak of five straight NCAA Tournament bids under Ed Cooley was a tremendous accomplishment for the program, questioning when they will return to the Sweet 16 for the first time in over two decades isn’t underselling that feat.
At this point, it’s fair to ask when the Friars will return to March Madness’ second weekend — and what it will take for PC to get there.
It will be difficult for Providence to win twice in the NCAA Tournament without reverting back to the offensive success the team had back in 2014 and 2015.
The Bryce Cotton-led 2014 Friars were ranked 30th in the country in offensive efficiency by Ken Pomeroy, and returned to the NCAA Tournament a year later at number 42 behind Kris Dunn.
Providence hasn’t come close to those numbers since, finishing 92nd in 2016, then 101st, 100th, 164th, 75th, and 96th in offensive efficiency in the six seasons that followed.
Making the Sweet 16 with an offense outside of the top 50 nationally is rare (as you’ll see below). Getting there with an offense ranked in the 90-100 range is that much harder, and requires one of the elite defenses in the country.
Prior to last season, when they were 74th in KenPom, Providence had been terrific defensively. From 2015-2020, PC finished anywhere from 27th to 42nd in the nation over a six-year span.
So, how challenging is it to make the round of 16 with an offense ranked outside of Pomeroy’s top 50? Let’s take a look at how many teams made the Sweet 16 and where they ranked offensively.
2021 Adjusted Offense National Ranking:
1-10: 5 teams
11-20: 3 teams
21-30: 3 teams
30-40: 2 teams
40-50: 2 teams
51+: 1 team
Summary: Oral Roberts (#66) was the only team to reach the Sweet 16 without a top 50 offense a year ago, and they didn’t use an elite defense to get there either. They finished #219 in the nation in adjusted defense.
Five teams (Oral Roberts, Oregon, Oregon State, Syracuse, and Villanova) made it to the Sweet 16 with an adjusted defense outside of the top 50.
2019 Adjusted Offense National Ranking:
1-10: 8 teams
11-20: 4 teams
21-30: 2 teams
30-40: 1 team
40-50: 0 teams
51+: 1 team
Summary: The only Sweet 16 team outside of the top 50 on offense was Oregon (#74), but the Ducks had the 13th ranked defense in the country per Pomeroy.
The only team to make the Sweet 16 in 2019 without a top 50 defense was LSU, who came in at #59.
2018 Adjusted Offense National Ranking:
1-10: 6 teams
11-20: 1 team
21-30: 1 team
30-40: 1 team
40-50: 3 teams
51+: 4 teams
Summary: Four teams outside of the top 50 in the country in offensive efficiency reached the Sweet 16 in 2018 — by far a high over the past five NCAA Tournaments.
Syracuse (#135 in offense) got there behind the fifth rated defense in the country. Texas A&M (66th offensively) was ranked 14th in defense, Kansas State (78th) finished 21st defensively, and Loyola (#63) had Pomeroy’s 17th best defense.
Only one team with a defense outside of the top 50 made it to the Sweet 16, and that was Nevada (#108) who had the seventh ranked offense in the country.
2017 Adjusted Offense National Ranking:
1-10: 4 teams
11-20: 5 teams
21-30: 5 teams
30-40: 1 team
40-50: 0 teams
51+: 1 team
Summary: The only team to reach the Sweet 16 without the benefit of a top 50 offense was South Carolina, whose offense was ranked 91st, but they featured an elite defense (3rd in the country).
Three teams outside of Pomeroy’s top 50 defenses reached the Sweet 16.
2016 Adjusted Offense National Ranking:
1-10: 8 teams
11-20: 3 teams
21-30: 2 teams
30-40: 1 team
40-50: 1 team
51+: 1 team
Summary: Wisconsin (#89 offensively) was the only non-top 50 offense to reach the Sweet 16. The Badgers had the country’s 13th best defense.
Four teams with defenses outside of the top 50 made it, including Notre Dame (158th in defense), Duke (86th), Iowa State (91st), and Indiana (58th).
Here is the list of teams that made the Sweet 16 without a top 50 offense (and their accompanying defensive rating) over the past five NCAA Tournaments:
Oral Roberts (2021): 66th in offense, 219 in defense
Oregon (2019): 74th in offense, 13th in defense
Syracuse (2018): 135 in offense, 5th in defense
Texas A&M (2018): 66th in offense, 14th in defense
Kansas State (2018): 78th in offense, 21st in defense
Loyola (2018): 63rd in offense, 17th in defense
South Carolina (2017): 91st in offense, 3rd in defense
Wisconsin (2016): 89th in offense, 13th in defense
As you can see, out of this group, only Oral Roberts reached the Sweet 16 without the benefit of a top 20-type defense. Only eight of the 80 Sweet 16 teams in the past five NCAA Tournaments had an offense outside of the top 50. That number is cut in half when looking at Sweet 16 teams with an offensive ranking of 75th and higher.
So, how many more teams made it to the Sweet 16 without a top 50 defense over the past five seasons?
Oregon (2021): 55th in defense, 10th in offense
Oregon State (2021): 60th in defense, 36th in offense
Syracuse (2021): 77th in defense, 24th in offense
Villanova (2021): 66th in defense, 6th in offense
Oral Roberts (2021): 219th in defense, 66th in offense
LSU (2019): 59th in defense, 12th in offense
Nevada (2018): 108 in defense, 7th in offense
Michigan (2017): 69th in defense, 4th in offense
UCLA (2017): 85th in defense, 2nd in offense
Xavier (2017): 67th in defense, 29th in offense
Notre Dame (2016): 158th in defense, 9th in offense
Duke (2016): 86th in defense, 4th in offense
Iowa State (2016): 91st in defense, 7th in offense
Indiana (2016): 59th in defense, 6th in offense
If the past five NCAA Tournaments are any indication, teams are more likely to reach the Sweet 16 without a top 50 defense than offense, but most of the programs that did so benefitted from an elite offense.
Oral Roberts was the only team in the past five NCAA Tournaments to make the Sweet 16 without either a top 50 offense or defense, according to Pomeroy’s rankings.
The average national ranking on the offensive side of the ball for these Sweet 16 teams was 22nd, while the average defensive ranking was 29th.
Probably not surprisingly, Providence’s best team on both sides of the ball under Ed Cooley was in 2014-15, when PC was ranked 42nd nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. They also received the highest NCAA Tournament seed under Cooley (6). That was the only time PC was ranked in the top 50 in both categories under Cooley during his time at PC.
The only other time Providence has been ranked in the top 50 in both since reaching the Elite 8 in 1997? In 2004 the Friars had the country’s 40th ranked offense and 21st ranked defense.
That ’97 team had the 35th ranked offense and 31st ranked defense.
Here are Providence’s KenPom rankings over the past ten years:
2012: 57th in offense, 238th in defense
2013: 76th in offense, 78th in defense
2014: 30th in offense, 90th in defense
2015: 42nd in offense, 42nd in defense
2016: 92nd in offense, 28th in defense
2017: 101st in offense, 40th in defense
2018: 100th in offense, 36th in defense
2019: 164 in offense, 41st in defense
2020: 75th in offense, 27th in defense
2021: 96th in offense, 74th in defense
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