David Duke NBA Draft Primer
The Friar guard looks to be Providence's first draft pick since 2016.
David Duke will look to be the first Providence Friar drafted since 2016, when Kris Dunn was taken fifth overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves before Ben Bentil went 51st to Boston.
On sheer measurements alone, no Friar since then has been better positioned to reach the NBA. Duke measured over 6’5 in shoes during his workouts this summer, and while he doesn’t possess an explosive first step off the bounce, his ability to finish above the rim and potentially play both guard positions makes him a potential second round pick on Thursday night.
Somewhat ironically, Duke cemented himself as an NBA prospect during this past season, his junior year, thanks to a huge increase in his offensive numbers — yet, if Duke is to be drafted it will likely be thanks to his potential as a defensive stopper.
Duke averaged nearly 17 points per game (16.8), while also grabbing 6.3 rebounds and dishing out 4.8 assists a night. He shot 79% from the free throw line, and 39% from 3-point range, often knocking down shots from beyond the NBA arc.
He can help on the glass (Duke twice grabbed 13 boards in a game in Big East play last season), and was explosive enough offensively to score 28+ on four occasions as a junior.
Perhaps Duke’s most complete game came on Dec. 30 versus Butler when he shot 9-11 from the field and finished with 22 points, 13 rebounds, and eight assists. He made 7-9 three pointers in a 30 point effort at Xavier, and went for 28 points (5-8 from 3) in a win at TCU.
Duke’s offensive game really evolved from his first two seasons at Providence, where he primarily scored from spot up situations as a freshman and sophomore — 28.1% of his usage as a freshman, 26.6% as a sophomore, down to 12.6% as a junior.
He struggled mightily in the pick and roll game early in his career, and was ineffective as an isolation scorer as an underclassmen. Duke was in the 14th percentile as a pick and roll scorer as a freshman before working his way up to 58th percentile last year. Roughly 15% of his possessions as a freshman and sophomore came as a pick and roll scorer, versus 27.4% as a junior. His isolation usage doubled as a junior — up from approximately 6% as an underclassman to nearly 14% this past season. He ranked 1st in the Big East in isolation scoring and 4th in pick and roll scoring.
While his spot up opportunities decreased as a junior, Duke made the most of those chances, with his 1.015 points per spot up possession ranking in the 72nd percentile nationally. He was very good on jumpers off of the dribble (71st percentile), and long range jumpers (74th percentile). Duke scored 7.6 points per game on jump shots in 2020-21.
He displayed a far more varied offensive game as a junior, but two areas where Duke didn’t help himself were scoring in the paint and on the defensive end. Duke ranked in just the 6th percentile on runners, and in the 7th percentile nationally on shots around the basket — surprising considering his frame and relative athleticism in comparison to most Big East opponents.
Prior to Duke’s junior season, he was perhaps best known as a terrific defender. With a 6’5, 205 pound frame and 6’8 wingspan, Duke was somewhat of a terror defensively as a sophomore. He ranked in the 83rd percentile nationally in points per possession against, and held opposing jump shooters to 25.6% shooting (87th percentile nationally).
His defensive numbers declined with an increase in offensive responsibility last season. He finished in the 44th% defensively in 2020-21, but still contested jumpers well (31.3% shooting, 62nd percentile) — just not to the extent he had a year prior.
Beyond the numbers, Duke was particularly strong for long stretches against elite college scorers like Seton Hall’s Myles Powell and Marquette’s Markus Howard as an underclassman.
Duke’s name is appearing in maybe half of the most popular mock drafts making the rounds. He came to Providence with the reputation as a high character kid, and on multiple occasions over the past season Ed Cooley said he has never had a harder working player.
We will find out on Thursday night if he will be Cooley’s third drafted player from Providence.