How has Providence fared in comparison to Big East Media Day predictions?
Have the Big East coaches accurately placed PC since the league's realignment in 2013? With Big East Media coming, we take a look at how the coaches have ranked them and the rest of the league.
Because I clearly need more hobbies, I have maintained a spreadsheet in recent years that includes all sorts of data of interest to me about Providence and the Big East since the league realigned prior to the 2013-14 season.
When Big East Media Day rolls around every October virtually every fanbase (minus Villanova) seems to complain about the lack of respect their program gets during the preseason predictions from the league’s coaches.
We’ll continue that tradition this Tuesday, after the Big East announces how its coaches voted for how each team will finish, as well as the preseason player of the year, preseason rookie of the year (which almost always goes to the player ranked highest by recruiting services), and the preseason all conference teams.
How has Providence done in comparison to expectations?
Which teams are annually overrated?
Which programs surpass expectations more regularly?
Let’s take a look. I used Big East Tournament seedings to break ties for when schools finished with the same record.
How fair have the league’s coaches been to Providence?
Through the first four years following realignment, PC supporters could make somewhat of a case about the league undervaluing them. Providence surpassed expectations in each of the first four seasons in the “new” Big East, although only once did they far exceeded those expectations.
In 2013-14, Providence was picked to finish sixth in the league and entered the Big East Tournament as the four seed.
They were picked fifth the following two seasons and were the fourth seed in both of those years.
PC’s biggest jump came in 2016-17, in the wake of losing Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. They were predicted to finish ninth in the league by the league’s coaches, but finished with their highest BET seed since realignment — third.
Three of the past four seasons have seen Providence rated higher in the preseason than their ultimate season-ending record.
The Friars were picked to finish fourth in the league in 2017-18 and earned the five seed in the Big East Tournament.
2018-19 saw Providence falling short of expectations most significantly. They were picked to finish third in the league and closed out seventh.
PC met expectations in 2019-20. They were predicted to finish in a tie with Marquette for fourth and ended the season fourth.
Last season saw their second biggest dip — going from a prediction of third in the league to a six seed in the Big East Tournament.
If we’re looking at a plus/minus system (i.e. a third place finish in a year they were predicted to come in fifth, would result in a +2), Providence is an overall +1 since 2013. They were a +10 following 2017, but a -5 in the 2018-19 season and last year’s -3 brought that number closer to a break even point.
Where does the rest of the league stand?
The Overachievers:
No program has a better plus/minus than Creighton at +11. They finished four places higher than predicted in 2018-19 and six spots higher in 2019-20. Creighton’s +6 matches the biggest jump of any finish (PC was also +6 in 2016-17) since the league realigned.
Butler is a +7, Seton Hall a +5, and Villanova +2 (the price they pay for being predicted first every year but 2013-14). Nova only has one season in which they finished lower than predicted.
The Underachievers:
Georgetown is a -13, with three different seasons in which they finished at least five spots lower than predicted.
The next closest is Marquette with a -9. Marquette has finished lower than predicted in five of eight seasons since realignment.
St. John’s is a -3, but it’s worth noting that last season was the first in which they exceeded preseason expectations.
Finally, DePaul has been predicted to come in last in six of the eight seasons since realignment (making it quite difficult to take a minus). Still, they somehow managed to do so in the only two seasons they weren’t predicted to come in last. Impressive.
So, when Big East Media Day rolls around this week, Creighton and Butler fans can rightfully gripe. Georgetown and Marquette? Not so much.