Mailbag Part 2: Bryce Hopkins' Future, Recruiting Coverage, the Rotation, NIL, and more
Do you think Bryce should redshirt? From what I’m being told by coaches I know he’s coming back too soon to be really effective. Let’s face it, it’s a lost year.
- Gerry
The #1 question that every Friars Fan wants to know is what is the forecast for Bryce Hopkins playing time in 2025?
There is little chance that this team can win 10+ games without BH.
- Charles
I know we always hear many rumors, but the latest I heard 3rd hand from a supposedly good source is that Hopkins is going to redshirt the balance of this year and place his name in the transfer portal.
Oh boy. Hope that is incorrect. Have you heard anything?
Vin
Unsurprisingly, we’ve had no shortage of Bryce Hopkins questions. Feel free to yell at me and tell me my sources are awful if this goes in a different direction, but my expectation is that Hopkins will not redshirt and will be back at some point for Providence this year. Tuesday against Marquette? I’m not sure, but I’d be surprised if another year of college is in his future.
Even with Hopkins working his way into form, his impact on this team is immeasurable.
In three games with Hopkins, PC is shooting 48.1% from the field, 36.8% from three, and 56.4% inside the arc.
Removing the first five games against low majors to start the year, without him PC shot 39.2% from the field, 34.8% from three, and 43.0% from two (this includes the three Atlantis games and those against the Bonnies and the Johnnies).
The defensive numbers with Hopkins are also far different:
Comparatively, here is what it looked like in the three games in Atlantis, and against St. Bonaventure and St. John’s on the defensive end:
Numbers are always telling, but here’s the obvious one: Since the win over Delaware State on Nov. 19, Providence is 0-5 without Hopkins in the lineup.
Hi Kevin,
Thanks for giving subscribers the opportunity to ask questions. Here's mine:
One of the best features in my opinion of the Providence Crier is the recruiting articles. I like nothing more than to hear about all of the recruits which PC is chasing, and thinking fancifully about their presence in a PC uniform. I notice that Friar Basketball doesn't address the recruiting topic as much. Is this because you have chosen to cede this topic to others, or do simply not have the bandwidth to cover it?
Thanks,
Jay
Hi Jay, as a listener of the Crier myself, I appreciate the chemistry that Mike and BOC bring to their pod. They are very often part of my ride down to Friar games.
You’ve touched on a great topic, of which I have many thoughts.
I started my site during the 2009-10 season. At the time, there was essentially the Projo and Richard Coren’s Scout site as the only PC resources, although I think Friarblog had just begun back then as well. I wanted to give people a reason to read someone new, so I leaned heavily into recruiting and did so by going to see kids play in person time and again. I used to drive three hours each way back then to see a Brewster or New Hampton play, and I wouldn’t miss the NERR events, the Providence Jamfest, the National Prep School Invitational, holiday tournaments, or HoopHall. I knew not just PC recruits, but all sorts of kids coming into the Big East and other conferences like the back of my hand. Some of my best memories as a Friar fan were sitting and watching 3-4 days straight of games with Craig Leighton and my friends Jerry, Bill, and Ed.
My daughter was born in 2015, and my son came two years later, which forced me to be more selective. If a commit is local I see him often in-person, and for those who aren’t I find ways to watch them at least a half dozen times via streams or big tournaments. Brimmer and May could have charged me rent for how many times I saw AJ Reeves his senior year. I love watching kids with my own two eyes and seeing them progress throughout their high school seasons and then into college.
I’ve been able to get out and see kids recently as well. The week Kayvaun Mulready committed I was watching him live that Friday, and a few days later saw him at the TD Garden. Last year, I was in Springfield when Oswin made his return from shoulder surgery in January, and then I saw him a few other times between then and March. I watched and reported on Ryan Mela frequently — from the first game Kim English saw him play on the UAA circuit to a number of in-person reports while he was at Newman. Seeing Mela so many times was a big reason why I felt confident pushing back a bit this fall on the widespread assumption that he was a potential redshirt candidate.
I’ve never been a real aggregator and there are all sorts of resources out there to see lists of recruits. Shout out to the Recruiting Board at Friartownhoops which is really under-appreciated. It’s well-organized and updated regularly.
My goal has always been to see kids as often as possible, versus taking the word of national recruiting services or writers who are looking for retweets, page views, or ins with prep or grassroots coaches. Once PC is narrowing in, I try to do the same, and when I do I try to provide as many in-person reports and highlight reels as I can.
The portal has taken some of the joy out of following high school recruiting, but if kids are trending toward PC, or committed, we will track them all.
Why doesn’t Coach English settle on an 8 or 9 man rotation? There seem to be too many substitutions…disrupting the flow, forcing frequent tempo ‘reorganizations’ while the team is on offense, and generally creating a less uniform/more helter skelter plan of attack. Also, wonder why he doesn’t ’go’ more with the freshmen; they appear talented, aggressive and needing in-game development.
Thank you and kudos for the solid news pieces!
Best,
- Bruce
Big fan. Grad in ‘65. Why isn’t Mela playing more and obviously no offense from the three bigs we have. If any team stops the threes, we are done..Is Hopkins done, looks like he will never be the same. Enjoy the updates.
- Ray
I think we can combine both of these questions into one answer. My concern when we heard about “13 dudes” was that it was about three too many. English was certainly burned last year when Hopkins went down, Will McNair left, and Justyn Fernandez injured his knee. This felt like a response to that.
Part of the issue is that players have to take advantage of the opportunity when it’s presented to them. Mela might not have seen the floor much this year had some of the vets either produced or defended at a higher level. He’s taken advantage of his minutes.
The one head scratcher for me has been the playing time of Corey Floyd Jr. since Hopkins returned. He seems much more comfortable in the system and defends at a high level. I think he could be an effective 25-minute-a-night guy.
The game against St. John’s felt like the makings of a new rotation going forward. We’ll see what the Marquette game brings, but it looks like the freshmen, Mela and Oswin, are cementing bigger roles.
To make a tourney run next year - KE needs to find a big time player/anchor to fill the shoes of Bryce who planned to fill the shoes of Devin. This year hasn’t went as planned due to Bryce’s recovery and transfer portal misses. How will that happen? Which players will be key cogs for next year’s team or is next year another building year to then make a real run in 26-27 (year 4) as the team will still be developing along with the new signees.
- Jibran
Hi Jibran, I think the portal gives you new life every spring, and I can’t imagine English looking ahead at ’26-27 as the next opportunity for a tourney run. That being said, the staff will have work to do. Ideally, Pierre and Floyd return as veteran guards and are complemented by the versatility of Mela and shooting of Rich Barron and Fernandez on the wing. How realistic is it to keep all five in today’s world, especially with Jamier Jones and Jaylen Harrell on the way? Not very likely. I like Jones’ potential to provide some pop as a small ball four next year. He’s an energetic, elite athlete and a very quick second jumper, but he hasn’t looked like a knockdown shooter when I’ve watched.
No matter who comes or goes, I think PC will need an alpha scorer in the backcourt or on the wing — the kind of guy who can get a bucket when all else fails. They’ll also need another point guard, one with a few years of eligibility remaining.
Three is a crowd for the center trio, and I’m not sure any of them are capable of swinging to power forward. English did play two bigs together at Mason at times, however. Adding a four is critical. PC hasn’t had anyone to lean on without Hopkins the past two years and it’s hurt them.
Enjoy your blog and podcasts and have questions/recommendations about possibly including specific NIL data and how the Friars compare to other schools. Since it appears NIL compensation has become such a large piece of recruiting, it would be interesting to see how the Friars are faring. It may also explain why we get only certain caliber players.
Thanks, OC
Hi OC, the trouble there is a lack of transparency across college athletics, so we are forced to go on word-of-mouth or inferential evidence. No one is opening their books to me, but it seems as if Providence is in a good place relative to fellow Big East schools.
A date to keep an eye on next year is April 7, as we’ll find out then if colleges and universities will start paying athletes directly.
You bring up a great point though, and this might be a good time for Billy and I to bring on someone from PC or the Collective for an update.
Hi Kevin,
Who are our best transition players based on a point per possession basis?
How does a school like PC approach roster building in this new NIL era?
Outside of roster building, where do you think Kim could develop as a coach? Personally I see rotation building and system tweaks as two big things? What do you think?
1. There really haven’t been enough transition opportunities to get a great read, but for players with five or more attempts it’s Hopkins at 1.250 points per possession followed by Bensley Joseph (1.061) and Pierre (1.059).
2. Retention and development are going to be key. It seems like the portal is only going to get more ridiculous, and I’d rather focus my NIL money on guys who I know can produce in my system and at my school. Pretty much the opposite of how John Henry ran the Sox back when he still cared.
This doesn’t mean you have to ignore transfers — where would this program be without Hopkins, Carter, Oduro, Durham, Minaya, Horchler, Bynum, Croswell, Locke, and so on? But this season has highlighted the uncertainty that can come with the portal, and you can lose a one-year guy pretty quickly if his final season isn’t going well. With everyone turning over their rosters, how nice would it be to have a core of 5-6 guys who have played together and know their roles/the system when the season tips in November?
3. I’d like to see more “in case of emergency” sets in his back pocket. I think back to the second half against Xavier at home last year, the first half at Nova last year, or the first half at Davidson in Atlantis. What’s the go-to set that will at least get you a good look when the offense can’t get out of its own way?
I’ve seen complaints about out of timeout plays, but I’ve felt like they’ve been good in those situations. A quick check of the numbers backs that up. PC ranks in the 80th percentile in points per possession out of timeouts, and the sample size is certainly large enough at this point of the season (160 possessions).
Thanks to everyone who sent in questions, and to all of you for reading!
I love these…the variety of the mail bag works well.
And to anyone who hasn’t read Kevin long term…his recruiting analysis and coverage was bar none — and was a must read during a period of time when the NE prep scene was exploding. I still smile when I see guys like Khem Birch and Georges Niang pop up and who can forget the Shabazz Napier/Naadir Tharpe rivalry that never was between UConn & PC
Happy New Year!