On Providence's Transition Game and the Challenge of Projecting One-Year Transfers

A look into the shooting numbers of Wesley Cardet Jr. can highlight the challenge of projecting what a transfer will look like in a new system.

And no, not because he has struggled shooting it in his first, and only, year in a Friar uniform. He’s actually shooting well through 13 games.

Cardet wasn’t viewed as a knockdown shooter prior to coming to Providence. Heading into the season, the Friar staff would have been thrilled at the increase he has seen as a spot-up scorer to date.

Cardet ranked in the 35th percentile nationally in spot-up scoring last season at Chicago State — hitting at a 28.4% clip from the field.

Fast forward a year, and he ranks in the 89th percentile when spotting up, making them at 47.7%. His 3-point percentage is up from 34% his last two years at Chicago State to 40% this year.

An 18.7 point per game scorer last season with improved outside shooting numbers this year, it would have been reasonable to expect Cardet to be in the midst of a huge final season of college hoops in Providence — especially with Bryce Hopkins sidelined for much of the year.

Yet his scoring average is at 9.2 points per game, with a Usage Rate that is down from 29.5% last season to 21% this year — unsurprisingly after moving from Chicago State to a deeper PC squad.

Cardet is playing nearly ten minutes fewer per game, which isn’t a complete shock considering PC’s logjam on the wing. He’s taking and making about half the number of shots he did at Chicago State.

How he’s getting his shots this year is just as different as how many attempts he’s getting. The numbers below indicate what percentage of his possessions came from different play types the past two seasons:

Besides the huge uptick in spot up attempts, the most glaring change comes in transition, where Cardet has just nine total possessions this year (he had 98 last season). Some of his most exciting tape from a season ago came on the break:

Cardet scored 149 of his 579 points in transition last year. This season he has five transition points total — the two on the pretty pass from Ryan Mela against St. John’s last Friday were his first since the Oklahoma game in Atlantis.

Cardet’s numbers are reflective of a broader issue for Providence this year: they have taken a step back in transition offense.