Previewing Kentucky: Intriguing matchups and coaching decisions await Providence and its coaching staff
While the rest of the country speculates about Georgetown’s reported pursuit of Providence head coach Ed Cooley, the Friar coach and his staff have been bunkered down game planning for a Kentucky team that mirrors their own in many ways.
This current Kentucky team isn’t quite what Cooley and company saw back in 2013 and then in 2014, when John Calipari benefitted from having the likes of Julius Randle, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Devin Booker to lean on.
The current Cats head into the 2023 NCAA Tournament as the sixth seed in the Eastern Region with a 21-11 overall record and a 12-6 mark in the SEC.
That’s not to say Calipari lacks star power. Oscar Tshiebwe was the National Player of the Year a season ago after averaging over 17 points and 15 boards per game — making him the first player to put up those lofty numbers in 30 years. Kentucky’s slow start to this season stole some of Tshiebwe’s shine, but he still had six games of at least 20 points and 15 rebounds this year.
Kentucky looked to be on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament following a mid-February loss to a bad Georgia team that dropped UK to 16-9. They rebounded by winning five of their final six games of the regular season — doing so through key injuries to their backcourt and taking out the likes of Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Arkansas in the process.
Cooley and his staff have some fascinating questions facing them as they scout this group.
This is a Kentucky team that has been burned by undersized guards at times this year (see: Vanderbilt), and the Friar coaching staff will have to determine if they want to ride with Jared Bynum’s offensive punch, or go with the bigger defensive unit that they rolled out to start the Big East quarterfinal against Connecticut.
One challenge that will come with scouting Kentucky heading into Friday night’s game is simply not knowing who will be on the floor. 5’9 point guard Sahvir Wheeler has led the SEC in assists three years in a row, but has been sidelined for nine consecutive games. He should be available on Friday, but for how many minutes? And is he an upgrade from their emerging freshman point?
Calipari seems to have found something with a lineup featuring 6’4 five-star freshman point guard Cason Wallace running the show. Cal will likely roll out a starting five with the length and athleticism to cause PC trouble — especially in the 1-3 spots.
There’s Wallace, their best backcourt scorer in 6’5 senior Antonio Reeves, and the emerging freshman Chris Livingston — a 6’6, 220 pound wing from Akron, OH. Both Wallace and Livingston were considered five-star prospects coming out of high school. Reeves is a veteran sniper who is growing increasingly comfortable in Calipari’s offense.
Ideally, Cooley would look to have Devin Carter slow Reeves, but then who matches up with Livingston on the wing if Providence goes with some combination of Noah Locke, Jared Bynum, or Alyn Breed alongside Carter?
The 4-5 spots are more straightforward. The Bryce Hopkins/Jacob Toppin matchup will be critical, while Ed Croswell will be tasked with keeping Tshiebwe off the offensive glass.
Let’s dig into the matchups and the biggest questions facing the Friars heading into Friday:
Did the rigors of the Big East prepare Ed Croswell for Oscar Tshiebwe?
Tshiebwe is the nation’s best rebounder and keeping him off the offensive glass will be critical. He averages an insane 5.5 offensive rebounds per game and draws over five fouls a night to boot. Tshiebwe is the biggest reason why Kentucky is second in the country in offensive rebounds per game (13.6), second in offensive rebound rate (38.7%), and second in second chance points (14.5).
Croswell is certainly no slouch (13.2 points, 7.6 rebounds per game), and as he showed in the Sweet 16 against Kansas last year, the bright lights and big, brand name frontcourts don’t faze him. He’s also gone up against some terrific centers in the Big East this season, and two in UConn’s Adama Sanogo and St. John’s Joel Soriano whose games at least somewhat resemble that of the 6’9, 260 pound Tshiebwe. Soriano is 6’11, 260 pounds and a monster on the glass in his own right (fourth in the country in offensive rebounds per game), while the 6’9, 245 pound Sanogo has more offensive game than Tshiebwe.
Connecticut might have been a good practice run for the Friars. UConn ranks 5th nationally in offensive rebounds per game, and first in both second chance points and offensive rebound rate. They had 10 offensive rebounds against PC in the Big East Tournament — a number Providence could live with against Kentucky.
So much of what Kentucky gets done offensively is predicated on the offensive glass, and limiting extra possessions would be huge for the Friars.
Can Bryce Hopkins win the battle at the four?