Providence finds a way versus St. John's
How PC's transfers have out-performed SJU's, Jared Bynum's continued ascension, dominating at the free throw line again, Al Durham's underrated defensive numbers, and more
St. John’s head coach Mike Anderson probably would have signed up for these numbers prior to Providence visiting on Tuesday:
St. John’s held a 22-13 assist advantage over PC
Anderson’s team hit the offensive glass hard, finishing with a 16-11 edge on the offensive boards
The Johnnies made 27 two-point field goals to Providence’s 16
The Friars held a 9-8 advantage from 3-point range, which would usually be negated by the numbers above
Typically preferring a methodical pace (PC ranks in the 16th percentile in the country in possessions per 40 minutes), the Friars ran at a tempo of a team that ranks near the 90th percentile in pace — right up St. John’s alley
But Providence has been decimating opponents at the free throw line all season, and it happened again in Queens. PC made 27-33 from the free throw line, as opposed to St. John’s 4-11. Those numbers shouldn’t surprise anyone, as Providence ranks in the 98th percentile in the country in free throw rate, while the Red Storm are among the worst in the entire country.
With the win on Tuesday, Providence improved to 19-2 on the season, 9-1 in the Big East, and 2-0 against St. John’s. The game mirrored the two team’s contest from a month prior, when the Friars took 30 free throws to St. John’s 17. As was the case on Tuesday, St. John’s made the least of its opportunities from the stripe in the first meeting between the two (8-17), while PC was nearly flawless (26-30).
It also didn’t help that in those two games, St. John’s star Julian Champagnie shot a combined 9-30 from the field (30%).
Champagnie was harassed by Justin Minaya, who was fresh off of winning the Big East’ Player of the Week award. That type of defensive effort is nothing new for Minaya, who is holding opponents to under 29% shooting when being guarded by him this season (39-135).
While Minaya’s defense has grabbed the headlines in recent weeks (thanks in part to Ed Cooley going to bat for him more than once), Al Durham is holding opponents to 30.5% shooting (43-141), which is good for second best on the Friars.
The graduate transfer duo are perhaps the biggest reason why Providence has taken such a step forward defensively. Not only are they locking people down, they are doing so against players taking the most shots against the Friars.
The 141 shots against Durham are the most of any player on PC’s roster, while the 135 on Minaya are second.
Statistically speaking, Providence did not have the best group of transfers coming into the Big East this season. In fact, a case could have been made that St. John’s five additions of Aaron Wheeler (Purdue), Stef Smith (Vermont), Tareq Coburn (Hofstra), Montez Mathis (Rutgers) and Joel Soriano (Fordham) would have a greater impact than PC’s two.
Smith was a 1,200 point scorer for a very good Vermont team, and shot just shy of 39% from three in his Catamount career.
Coburn was to be another dead-eye shooter to complement Champagnie and Posh Alexander. He was a 15 point per game scorer last year, and 39% shooter from deep over the past three seasons.
Soriano was a near-double double guy at Fordham (10.4 points and 9.4 rebounds), Mathis is a veteran piece, and we’ve seen what the versatile Wheeler can bring this season.
Those five, alongside perhaps the league’s best scorer in Champagnie and the ferocious Alexander figured to make the Johnnies a Big East dark horse.
Yet, as we kicked off February St. John’s fell to 11-9 on the season, and 3-6 in the Big East with last night’s loss, proving that there are no guarantees in the transfer market — and that we should pay closer to defensive metrics when new players arrive.
Then there are the things that can’t be measured statistically, like Durham finding a way to impact a game in which he shot 1-10 from the field. He got his points by making 12-13 at the free throw line, and sealed the game in the final minute with perfect shooting at the stripe.
Of course, Providence must feel as though it added a new player this season in Jared Bynum. The redshirt junior point guard is one of the better bounce-back stories of the Cooley era. He shot a disastrous 11.9% from three point range last season and 31% from the field overall.
The scouting report from the Friar faithful in the offseason read: too short to defend in the Big East, terrible shooter, dribbles the ball into the ground, but at least he doesn’t turn it over much.
How can Bynum possibly be the same player we watched last year? After last night’s 4-5 shooting effort from distance, Bynum is now hitting threes at a 38% clip on the season. He’s making them at 41% in league games.
A strong case could be made that Bynum (12 points, 45% from the field, 41% from 3, 81% at the free throw line) has been Providence’s best offensive player in Big East play. He is second on the team in scoring, and has 20 more assists than anyone else in those ten games.
He hit the shot of the night on Tuesday — a 30 footer with the shot clock winding down to put PC ahead with three minutes to go. There is a good chance that Bynum will join Kyron Cartwright, Ben Bentil, and Kadeem Batts by winning the Big East’s Most Improved Player award.
Bynum and Noah Horchler killed St. John’s from deep. Horchler made 4-7 from long range, and is shooting just under 46% from three in ten league games. Horchler made some silencers at critical junctures against St. John’s.
For the second game in a row, Nate Watson did damage in the second half (15 of his 16 points), while Ed Croswell finished in traffic on a perfect 4-4 shooting night.
The Friars are 4-0 since returning from their Covid pause, and on a night in which nearly every statistical category favored St. John’s, PC picked up yet another road win with timely shots and late-game execution.