Providence is off to a strong start to the season, but is the best still to come?
Through 13 games this season, Providence is 11-2 on the year, 2-0 in the Big East, and recently cracked the Associated Press’ top 25. Behind a defense that has blown away any preseason prognostications, a stellar year from junior guard Devin Carter, and the seamless transition of George Mason grad transfer Josh Oduro at center, the Friars certainly look better than their predicted #7 finish in the Big East.
With just over two months left in the regular season, it’s also not unfair to wonder if Providence still has sizable room for growth on the offensive end.
Before delving into what else could go right for this team offensively as it progresses through conference play, let’s start with a critical contributing factor to their first two conference wins: the offensive explosion of Ticket Gaines.
PC obviously benefitted from outstanding shooting efforts from Gaines, but the Friars rightfully can’t expect to get five 3-pointers a game from him, as he did in both conference victories to date.
Prior to this season, Gaines had only made four 3-pointers in a game on three occasions. In fact, he’d only hit three shots from beyond the arc in six career games. This season, he already has a game with seven made threes (vs. Wagner), and five in two conference games. Both performances were critical in helping Providence land victories against #6 Marquette and an improved Butler group.
Gaines is enjoying the type of offensive freedom this season that he didn’t have in years past. He had taken 10 threes in a game only once in his career (a 3-10 effort versus Rhode Island last February), but he did so against Wagner, Marquette and then Butler already this season. While PC may not benefit from another outright explosion to the extent of five threes the rest of the way, you can bet opposing coaches will commit to not letting Gaines beat them — specifically from the corners, where has been an absolute killer.
His shooting the last two times out is a big reason why Providence went from an offense ranked around 120th in the nation in efficiency in the non-conference to the highest scoring team in Big East play to date. It already feels like a distant memory, but Gaines was shooting 29% from beyond the arc after non-conference play (14-47), and half of his makes came in one game.
While Gaines’ numbers will likely revert to the norm (he shot 34% from 3 last year), there is reason to believe this offense still has another level to it when that occurs.
Of course, so much of Providence’s untapped offensive potential rests with Bryce Hopkins. It’s news to no one that Hopkins has struggled from beyond the arc, and at the tail end of the Marquette game and into the win over Butler those troubles bled over to the free throw line.
I can’t tell you the number of Friar fans that have told me some derivative of either Kim English’s system not being a fit for Hopkins, or how he’s taking too many threes and needs to get back into the paint.
A point of clarity:
A season ago, Hopkins took 4.9 shots per game at the rim.
This season, that number has jumped to 6.4.
Of his field goal attempts last season, 41.8% came at the rim, while 49.4% of his shots are at the rim this year. And for all of the handwringing about his efficiency at the bucket in November, Hopkins shot 62.7% at the rim a season ago, versus 63.9% this year.
He has all but removed the mid-range shot from his game compared to last year (7.2% of his shots this season vs. 15.6% last year), which isn’t a bad thing, as Hopkins wasn’t overly efficient from there in 2022-23.
The biggest difference in efficiency this season has come from above the break threes, where 16.4% of Hopkins’ shots came last season. He was outstanding from the left wing (14-30, 46.7%) and respectable from the top of the key and the right wing (33% from both spots) last year.
This season, 25.5% of Hopkins shots are coming on above the break threes, and he’s simply not hitting from the wings (2-15 from the left, 2-16 from the right, 5-12 from the top of the key).
His form looks different this season, with seemingly more elevation on his jumper (as opposed to more of a slower set shot last year), but from what I’ve been told he is hitting at a good clip in practice — it just hasn’t translated to games. Here’s what it looked like a season ago:
He averaged 2.3 three-point attempts per game last year to 3.9 this season.
It’s unfortunate that Hopkins is struggling to the extent that he has from beyond the arc, as he is still rebounding at a very high clip (up to 8.7 boards per game from 8.5 last season), is improved defensively, and has seen an uptick on two-point field goals: .547 shooting on 9.0 twos per game (as opposed to .474 on 9.3 last year).
With his improved athleticism, Hopkins also has 19 dunks this year, against 13 the entirety of last season. He is still averaging 16.3 points and 8.7 boards per game, but with more consistency and efficiency on his jumper, Providence could take another step big forward — much in the way they did once Gaines found his stroke from distance after struggling earlier.