Reasons for Optimism and Concern Following the Non-conference Slate
Providence left themselves some work to do if they are to reach the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive season, following an 8-3 mark in non-conference play.
The Friars will head to Newark, NJ next weekend to kick off the Big East portion of the schedule against Seton Hall in hopes of picking up their best win of the season. With a relatively soft non-conference slate, Providence essentially had three opportunities to pick up a quality win prior to the start of conference play. They were soundly out-played by Miami, lost a double digit second half lead against St. Louis, and didn’t bring the intensity needed to win at TCU.
This was a group that was reeling a bit heading to Kingston to take on URI, but they controlled the in-state rivalry from late in the first half into the second, and then put up over 190 points against a pair of teams they should have dominated in Manhattan and Albany.
Regardless of the quality of their opponents over the past week, it would be hard to argue that Providence hadn’t taken a big step forward since the loss to TCU.
A team that looked disconnected went into a hostile Ryan Center and took the crowd out of it early. PC has been more connected since then. In the final three games of the non-conference Ed Cooley’s group averaged over 93 points per game.
Considering they beat both Merrimack and Columbia by 14 each in late November, Providence has seemingly found something over the past seven days.
Just how much better have they gotten? We’re about to find out. The Friars open with three of their first four conference games on the road, albeit in three opposing gyms they should be competitive in at Seton Hall, Butler and DePaul.
Typically strong in non-conference play, the Big East has made life a bit tougher on itself this winter. Providence (103), Seton Hall (119), and even Villanova (115) currently find themselves in unfamiliar territory outside of the top 100 in the NET rankings.
Those numbers could certainly change in the coming weeks — and the Friars (and their fans) will have plenty of time to worry about building an NCAA Tournament resume. The league still boasts top 50-type NET teams in UConn (1), Xavier (39), Marquette (43), Creighton (44), and Butler (51), St. John’s is at 70.
The best advice for this team would be to follow the lead of the 2021-22 Friars, who seemed to embrace the moment of every game they played in.
As the Big East schedule approaches, here are some encouraging trends and concerning signs for the Friars so far.
Encouraging: Bryce Hopkins has shown star potential. Let’s begin with the obvious. Aside from occasional turnover issues, Hopkins has been as good as advertised through 11 games — averaging 14.9 points and 8.5 rebounds, while shooting just under 49% from the field. Perhaps even more encouraging for the Friars, it feels as though he is just scratching the surface.
After the win at URI, Ed Cooley said there are “two or three more levels” to Hopkins’ game. That would make sense considering Hopkins played just a dozen games his senior year of high school due to the pandemic, and saw sparse action at Kentucky last year.
With his powerful back-to-the-basket game, the ability to blow by defenders on a fast first-step, and his trademark spin move, Hopkins has a lot of tricks in his bag. Not just a scorer, Hopkins is capable of grabbing 15 rebounds on any given night, or dishing out 6-7 assists.
He’s finding his way into the paint consistently (nearly 70% of his shots have come inside) and Hopkins is starting to look for his midrange shot more frequently (6-13 on the season).
Concerning: The outside shooting has faltered. Heading into this year, the only two apparent certainties for Providence from beyond the arc were Jared Bynum and Noah Locke. Could they get any sort of help from deep out of Hopkins, Alyn Breed, Clifton Moore, Jayden Pierre, or Devin Carter from distance?
The short answer to that question is yes. Carter has been inconsistent from three (30%), but is 5-10 on corner threes. Breed seems to be finding his game, and confidence, of late and the result is a 6-13 mark from deep. Moore has made 4-9, Pierre hit seven of his first nine (he’s 7-11 now), while Hopkins has made enough (8-24) to at least keep defenses honest.
Unfortunately for the Friars, Locke is 21-64 (.328) from three overall and shooting 27% from above the break (non-corner 3s), and Bynum is 7-40. The Friars have bullied their way through most opponents in the non-conference, but that will become increasingly more difficult when Xavier and Connecticut come to town. Locke and Bynum finding their footing from three will make a big difference.
PC is struggling to make threes from the top of the key, where they are shooting it at a 21.3% clip (the national average from there is 32.8%). Last year’s Friars were at 34% from the top of the key.