Resetting the roster after the commitment of Will McNair Jr. to Providence

Providence’s search for a backup big man to fill out its final roster spot came to an end on Tuesday when Mississippi State transfer Will McNair Jr. committed to the Friars.

In McNair, Kim English and his staff get a big-bodied center (6’10, 265 pounds) to back up George Mason transfer Josh Oduro. Providence is banking pretty heavily on the fact that Oduro, who was a two-time All Atlantic-10 center at Mason, will make a smooth transition to the physicality of the Big East. The staff won’t have to lean on the skilled Oduro as heavily as they did at George Mason (he led the Patriots in scoring at 15.6 points per game, with a usage rate that ranked in the 98th percentile of all players at his position last year), but they’ll certainly need him to be very good if they have designs on doing damage come March.

Regardless of how well Oduro performs next season, Providence will feel the loss of center Ed Croswell, who not only emerged into a consistent low post scorer, but gave the Friars a punishing interior presence who kept possessions alive with his uncanny knack on the offensive boards. Opponents felt it after they spent a night battling with Croswell.

McNair, a Philadelphia native like Croswell, is coming off a season in which he averaged 3.3 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. He won’t be Croswell, but he adds elements to this roster that were needed: like massive size to match up against the likes of UConn’s Donovan Clingan in the post, and the ability to wall up defenders. PC was decimated on the glass by Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, (especially when Croswell went to the bench) in last year ‘s NCAA Tournament. Ideally, the fifth year big man gives them more of a fighting chance against against interior-heavy opponents — like he did in the 2022 NCAA Tournament when he helped limit Adama Sanogo to just 4-9 shooting from the field when New Mexico State upset UConn in the first round.

McNair spent three years at New Mexico State before transferring when head coach Chris Jans was hired by Mississippi State in the spring of 2022. He started 27 games for the Aggies in 2021-22, on a team that reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament before falling to Arkansas. He averaged 6.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game in his final season there. He shot 67.4% at the rim, scoring mainly on post-ups (87 possessions), cuts (64), offensive rebounds (23), and put-backs (22).

Defensively, McNair held up well when being posted up — limiting opponents to .675 points per possession, which ranked in the 78th percentile nationally in 2022.

English now has some versatility at center coming off his bench with the strength of McNair combined with the athleticism of redshirt sophomore Rafael Castro.

On paper, this figures to be an improved defensive team, albeit one with question marks about its ability to stretch the floor offensively.

Let’s take a deeper look at how next year’s Friars are shaping up.

Youth, athleticism in the backcourt

Providence’s backcourt will have a very different look next season after the departures of Jared Bynum and Noah Locke. Bynum was a First Team All Big East selection in the preseason, who struggled to find his jumper (31% from 3) last year, while Ed Cooley and his staff got graduate transfer Noah Locke scoring from inside the perimeter more effectively than he had his entire career, while hitting threes at a 38% clip.

The Friars were small in the one through three spots last year, with the sub-six foot Bynum, Locke (6’3), and Devin Carter (6’3) typically seeing big minutes together. That was a rather stark contrast to the Sweet 16 team of 2022 that had length across the board.

Next year’s team has the size and athleticism to be much improved defensively, specifically in the backcourt. Sophomore Jayden Pierre got after it on the defensive end, albeit in short minutes, while the staff fully expects 6’5 freshman point guard Garwey Dual to defend at a high level, even in year one.

English will have the option to play Dual and Carter in a defensively terrifying backcourt together next year — a far different look than anything we saw in 2022-23.

Corey Floyd Jr. will see a big spike in minutes during his redshirt sophomore campaign. Floyd Jr. is a powerfully built 6’4, 210 pound guard with easy range beyond the arc and high defensive upside. English also brought in sophomore-to-be Justyn Fernandez, an athletic freak at 6’5, 200 pounds, from George Mason.

Providence’s backcourt is filled with size and athleticism, but lacks the type of experience of the previous two Friar rosters.

More depth at forward and on the wing

The national conversation for Providence heading into this season will begin with Bryce Hopkins, a First Team All Big East performer in his first year with the Friars. Hopkins was terrific last year, averaging 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. He seemingly hit a wall late last season after taking a pounding as a stretch four who played 35 physical minutes a night. Prior to traveling to UConn in February, Hopkins was averaging 16.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 48.5% from two and 39.3% beyond the arc. Over the final five games of the season, he averaged around 10/5 and saw his shooting numbers dip: 34.8% overall, 40% on twos, 18% from three in those final five games.

English and his staff will have some fun cooking up different looks for Hopkins this summer. He shot 36% from beyond the arc, and English recently told Jon Rothstein that he wants him shooting far more threes next year. The staff may even toy with giving Hopkins minutes at the five and completely stretching out certain opponents.

Last year’s Providence team had a bit of a unique makeup in comparison to others in the Cooley era. They were combo guard heavy, smaller in the backcourt, and outside of Hopkins lacked the type of versatile forwards Cooley relied on.

Next year, PC will have more options on the wing. English brought in Davonte “Ticket” Gaines, a player the staff is convinced will be a hit in Providence for his willingness to do anything to win. He’s lean at 6’7, 181 pounds, but the super senior can rebound, stretch the floor, and defend. Both Floyd Jr. and Fernandez have the size and athleticism to guards most threes, while the Friars added longer term wings in freshman Richard Barron (a shooter out of Chicago) and Southern California prep Donovan Santoro, a 6’8 wing whose best basketball is likely a few years down the line. Both Santoro and Barron come with reputations as shooters. Which leads to…

Kim English wants to get shots up from deep, but does he have the shooters?

By the numbers, Providence has players who can make shots from beyond the arc. Hopkins shot 36% last year, while Floyd (41%) and Pierre (54%) were money on limited attempts. Gaines shot 34% from three last year, while English thinks Oduro can develop into an outside threat with a fully healthy summer ahead of him. He also believes Carter is a better shooter than his 29% from last season indicates.

But there is a difference between players who can make three pointers and three point shooters. Look no further than the Eastern Conference Finals, where many of Boston’s players who made threes all year (but weren’t pure shooters) melted in the final two games of their run when the defensive intensity ramped up and space was harder to come by.

Does Providence have a player that opposing coaches simply can’t leave open under any circumstance? Will Dual and Carter shoot it well enough from beyond the arc to allow English to play the monster backcourt? How do Pierre and Floyd shoot it with increased minutes? How efficient is Hopkins on more attempts? Can Oduro shoot it well enough to unlock his game off the dribble even further?

Outside shooting and experience at critical spots will be big questions heading into 2022-23. This is English’s first year as a head coach in the Big East, and he has a very talented team, albeit one with youth at point guard. We also aren’t sure what to make of Alyn Breed’s future with the program as he sorts through legal issues stemming from an alleged incident with his ex-girlfriend and a firearm this spring. Breed isn’t listed on the team’s current roster.

And while there will be question marks heading into the season, as there are with every college program, English and his staff have put together a roster that any Friar fan would have signed up for when Cooley left for Georgetown in March.

In Carter and Hopkins, Providence has two of the top returning players in the country, a young, but exciting point guard duo, a potentially versatile center rotation, and athleticism on the wings.