Which Teams Are Actually Underrated or Overrated on Big East Media Day?
On Tuesday, the Big East Conference will hold its annual Media Day or, as fans of everyone aside from Villanova and UConn refer to it, “National Disrespect Day.”
By Tuesday morning we will see who the coaches voted for Preseason Player of the Year, which players they named to the Preseason All Big East teams, and get a reminder of which freshman had the highest recruiting ranking when they name the league’s Preseason Freshman of the Year.
The rest of the day is filled with interviews from head coaches and players, and the time-honored tradition of fanbases running to Twitter to give their reasons as to why their team is constantly short-changed when the league’s coaches vote in October.
So, who should we take seriously when it comes to listening to who has actually been disrespected, once again, on Big East Media Day?
Here at Friar Basketball we have been tracking predicted finishes on Media Day and contrasting them with a program’s Big East Tournament seeding to come up with a plus/minus system to see which programs have actually been undervalued the most (i.e. a third place finish in a year in which a team was predicted to come in fifth, would result in a +2).
The numbers for Villanova and DePaul don’t show much variance because of where they are typically predicted, and where they usually end up. Villanova has been predicted to come in first place in seven of the nine seasons since realignment (and finished first six times). Whereas, DePaul has been predicted last seven times.
The Most Overlooked Teams in the Big East on Media Day (per +/-)
Creighton (+15): The Jays’ +15 is far and away the best mark in the league. Greg McDermott’s clubs have finished higher than their predicted finish in four of the last five seasons, including in 2019 when they were a +4, 2020 when they were a +6, and last season’s +4.
Providence (+7): The days of feeling overlooked on Media Day seemed to be a thing of the past prior to last season. PC was a healthy +10 following the 2016-17 season, but -9 from 2018-21. The Friars got a huge bump with last year’s Big East regular season title, in which they finished six spots higher than their predicted finish.
Seton Hall/Butler (+4): It’s hard to call Seton Hall underrated by Big East coaches, as they have only exceeded expectations in one of the past six years. Their +4 comes mainly from finishing four spots above expectations in 2016 and five places higher in 2019. When Butler exceeds expectations they typically do so dramatically — +4 in 2015, +4 in 2017, +5 in 2020. The Bulldogs were quite undervalued traditionally, but the past two seasons saw their number take a hit (-5 over those two years).
Fanbases to Tune Out on Tuesday Morning
Georgetown (-14): The Hoyas’ -14 safely stands alone in the top spot. The early days of the league were particularly harmful to their rating, as they were -16 through four seasons. There have only been seven occasions in which a team finished with a -5 in a season. Georgetown owns three of them.
St. John’s/Xavier (-6): The Johnnies really boosted their number by finishing a +5 in 2021, but three different seasons with a -3 have hurt. Xavier’s mark is somewhat unfair (more on that below), as their -5 last season dropped them down rather dramatically. X is a -9 over the past three years.
Marquette (-5): It’s hard to believe, given where they were at the beginning of realignment, that Marquette hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since reaching the regional final in 2013. They were in the regional semis the two years prior to that as well. Shaka Smart’s first season at the helm provided a needed lift to their plus/minus, with a +4 finish last season.
Seasons in Which Teams Finished Above Media Day Expectations
Creighton: 6
Providence: 5
Butler/Xavier: 4
Georgetown: 3
DePaul/Marquette/Seton Hall: 2
Villanova/UConn/St. John’s: 1
Seasons in Which Teams Finished Below Media Day Expectations
Georgetown/Marquette: 5
Butler/Seton Hall/St. John’s/Xavier: 4
Providence: 3
Creighton/Villanova/DePaul: 2
UConn: 1