Will Providence Go to the Post Even More Next Season?
With the departure of David Duke, Providence might rely on Nate Watson in the post even more in 2021-22. But just how much will they do so?
Providence relied heavily on David Duke a season ago. His 19.9 possessions per game (consisting of a shot attempt, free throw, or turnover) were the most of any player in the Big East, and ranked in the top 50 nationally.
That figure also marked the most PC relied on one player since Ben Bentil’s 20.2 possessions per game in 2015-16. Bentil, Bryce Cotton (in 2014), and Vincent Council (2012) are the only Friars to eclipse 20 possessions per game under Ed Cooley. Kris Dunn never cracked 19. The 2017-18 offense featuring the senior trio of Kyron Cartwright, Rodney Bullock, and Jalen Lindsey didn’t have a player averaging over 14 possessions per game.
The departure of Duke likely means more opportunities for AJ Reeves (11.1 possessions last season), Jared Bynum (8.8), and Noah Horchler (7.5). Cooley added a pair of graduate transfers who are almost certain to see big minutes in Indiana transfer guard Al Durham, and former South Carolina wing Justin Minaya. Neither Durham (11.8 possessions per game last year) or Minaya (8.4) have been high usage players throughout their careers, however.
Providence was once again a poor three point shooting team a season ago. The Friars shot 32% from deep, and that was with Duke’s 51 makes on 39% shooting.
Since Jalen Lindsey’s scorching junior season in 2016-17 (46% from 3 on 161 attempts), PC has ranked 258th, 257th, 182nd, and 255th in the country in 3-point shooting, per Ken Pomeroy.
Providence also hasn’t taken many, relative to the rest of the nation, ranking 266th in 3-point attempt percentage last season, which followed seasons in which they were 208th, 273rd, and 291st in attempts from beyond the arc.
The Friars have only cracked the top 200 in the country twice in 3-point attempt percentage since Ed Cooley became head coach.
On paper, PC hasn’t upgraded as an outside shooting team via their newcomers. Freshmen Rafael Castro and Legend Geeter do not come with reputations as knock down shooters, nor does Minaya. Durham made 38 of 100 attempts last year, which may help negate Duke’s loss to an extent.
So, how does Providence manufacture enough offense in 2021-22?
Cooley could look to Nate Watson in the post even more frequently.
Watson wasn’t exactly a low usage player last year, with 14.8 overall possessions and 6.4 post up opportunities per game (ranking 21st in the nation in post up opportunities — fifth highest among high major players).
Might Cooley look to give Watson another two or three possessions a night out of the post? If so, Watson would be perhaps the highest usage post player in the country next year.
Iowa star Luka Garza led the country with 9.7 post possessions a game last season, followed by Purdue’s Trevion Williams at 9.4. The two other high major players with more post touches than Watson were Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn (7.7) and West Virginia stud Derek Culver (7.1). All four of those players were stars — either All American level players, or all league talent in power conferences.
Perhaps the biggest challenge in feeding Watson to this extent will be collapsing defenses. Opponents couldn’t afford to leave shooters from Iowa and Illinois open last year.
Iowa had the third rated offense in the country per Ken Pomeroy with the 11th highest 3-point percentage in the nation. Illinois was 8th offensively and 35th in 3-point percentage.
Providence finished 96th offensively per Pomeroy and, as mentioned previously, 255th nationally in three point shooting percentage.
Despite the Friars’ relative inability to spread the floor, Watson was very effective out of the post last season. Here’s a look at how he compares to the four aforementioned players with more post touches, as well as star level post players in Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, and Loyola-Chicago big man Cameron Krutwig (who all had a similar number of post touches as Watson):
While the numbers above do not account for making plays by kicking out of the post, only Krutwig (3.0), Williams (2.3) and Timme (2.3) averaged more than two assists per game. Three of these players averaged less than an assist a game.
With Duke gone, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Watson average seven or eight post possessions per game. That should be a good thing for the Friars. His numbers certainly compare favorably to the top post players in the country from a year ago.
Providence faces a number of questions after finishing .500 last year and losing Duke. Chief among them will be if they can shoot well enough to free Watson up inside. If Horchler comes close to matching his 41% 3-point shooting from a year ago (with more touches) he can draw big men outside. Can AJ Reeves turn into a 40% shooter from deep as a senior? Can Bynum (.119 from 3 last year), Alyn Breed (.265) or Brycen Goodine (.278) become shooters defenses have to at least be somewhat accountable for?
The Friars will likely look to feed Watson early and often in the post, and if they struggle from deep it will not only allow teams to collapse on him, but make entry passes challenging (as we saw at times last year).
Cooley is great at creating chaos on the interior and getting his players looks in the paint. How effectively, and frequently, he does so next season could be critical.